Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.022910 0.026010 0.029401 0.033389 0.037956 0.043031 0.049105
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.017688 0.021801 0.026704 0.033000 0.040897 0.050509 0.063150
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.014877 0.019361 0.025022 0.032732 0.043014 0.056336 0.075031
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.013314 0.018116 0.024474 0.033565 0.046327 0.063750 0.089581
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.011740 0.016589 0.023270 0.033228 0.047836 0.068697 0.101135
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.010914 0.015960 0.023171 0.034336 0.051390 0.076782 0.118056
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.009630 0.014505 0.021695 0.033203 0.051413 0.079535 0.127068
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.008698 0.013466 0.020706 0.032659 0.052206 0.083448 0.138237
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.007743 0.012288 0.019376 0.031408 0.051686 0.085132 0.145805
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.007425 0.012084 0.019547 0.032584 0.055244 0.093844 0.166360
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007131 0.011883 0.019694 0.033714 0.058808 0.102895 0.188549
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.006839 0.011656 0.019766 0.034705 0.062203 0.111962 0.211808
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006318 0.010999 0.019064 0.034289 0.063074 0.116656 0.227561
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.005860 0.010415 0.018439 0.033955 0.064067 0.121697 0.244685
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005458 0.009895 0.017877 0.033673 0.065109 0.126905 0.262745
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005251 0.009712 0.017915 0.034532 0.068465 0.137027 0.292410
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004907 0.009241 0.017369 0.034186 0.069339 0.142168 0.311886
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004772 0.009160 0.017557 0.035327 0.073400 0.154396 0.348820
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.004385 0.008552 0.016665 0.034159 0.072429 0.155689 0.360634
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.004099 0.008121 0.016089 0.033598 0.072710 0.159743 0.379483
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003763 0.007563 0.015211 0.032309 0.071240 0.159683 0.388260
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003696 0.007556 0.015469 0.033522 0.075563 0.173440 0.433507
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.003626 0.007536 0.015697 0.034686 0.079893 0.187694 0.482040